The next economic leg forecast by Martin Armstrong’s Socrates computer software turned down last weekend. Having accurately forecast the improvement in confidence which we’ve seen in America following the election of Donald Trump, Socrates next leg is a darkening period from now until July of next year. That’s what the computer says.
Sound nuts? We are supposed to believe that a software program can accurately forecast economic developments? I agree and can identify with your skepticism, but after following Socrates predictions for five years, I’ve become a believer—as, incidentally, have many wealthy financial and economic groups and individuals worldwide. Armstrong posts free blogs daily at his website and also offers a number of paid services. It is, in my opinion, one of the best information sources on the internet. So let’s see what happens, while hoping Socrates is wrong…
Taxing time. Congress critters returned to the swamp this week to see if they can agree on changes to the tax code. Initially heralded as a “major overhaul,” what’s coming is anything but. Corporate taxes are coming down and the number of individual tax brackets will shrink, but the impact on American workers is far from certain. Included in the House version is elimination of Obamacare’s individual mandate.
Once that’s done, Congress will need to deal with the temporary spending bill (in lieu of a 2018 budget) expiring December 8—potentially pushing the deadline to just before Christmas, when the government might shut down for lack of a budget agreement. Oh great; perfect timing! Hopefully, Steve Bannon is right: populist-economic nationalists are winning, and we’re heading for replacement of many of these irresponsible rascals in 2018.
Behind your back. While we’re on the topic of swamp-critters, consider the following. The “USA Liberty Act” just passed the House Judiciary Committee by a vote of 27-8. Congressman Justin Amash summarized its purpose: “It’s another bill, like the Freedom Act, that furthers violation of our rights under the guise of protecting our rights.” If it becomes law, it will blatantly violate freedoms guaranteed by the Fourth Amendment. Didn’t show up in your evening news? Wonder why…
Cryptos forever. Bill Holter initiated a highly enlightening conversation, involving gold swami Jim Sinclair, Road to Roota’s Bix Weir and Half Past Human’s Clif High. These four notable financial alt-market figures discussed gold versus cryptocurrencies for over two hours, providing many good points and agreements—including (1) Bitcoin is here to stay and destined to go MUCH higher, (2) neither gold nor SDRs will be accepted as world reserve currency replacements for the dollar, and (3) blockchain applications will revolutionize our way of life. The time to start understanding cryptocurrencies and getting involved with them is NOW.
In defense of freedom. For those of you who’ve followed the travails of the Bundy family, here’s Ryan Bundy’s opening statement in “the trial of the century,” which began two weeks ago.
MARKETS – for the week ending November 24
Real money declined: gold closed down $9 to $1287/ounce and silver fell 38-cents to $16.99/oz.
US stocks rose: the Dow and S&P closed up 0.9% and 1.3% to 23558 and 2602.
Mining stocks (the XAU Index) inched 0.3% higher to 81.11.
Crude oil (the WTIC Index) rose for the fifth straight week, up $2.25 to $58.95/barrel, but now faces a decline amid rising inventories, waning demand and Russian resistance to further production cuts.
Commodities were flat: the (GCC Index) closed up 0.2% to 19.28.
Currencies. The Federal Reserve Note (= dollar, via USD Index) dropped 0.9% to 92.71.
Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin closed the week $800 higher at $8525/coin—then shot another $1000+ over the weekend, and is now approaching $10,000.
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US Treasury bonds were relatively flat: 10-year and 30-year yields fell 1 and 2 basis points, respectively, to 2.34% and 2.76%.
About the Author
Wayne Peterson is Manager of Wayne Framework 2, LLC, author of “But What If I’m Right?” and publisher of the Transformation Watch newsletter and weekly Crypto Analyst Newsletter. For free weekly receipt of these financial blogs, subscribe here.